A new report, Progress Towards Shipping’s 2030 Breakthrough, compiled by the UCL Energy Institute, UN Climate Change High-Level Champions, and the Global Maritime Forum’s Getting to Zero Coalition, has issued a stark warning: the global shipping industry is falling behind on its goal to have zero-emission fuels account for five per cent of the fuel mix by 2030.
This target, set by the International Maritime Organization (IMO), is seen as a crucial stepping stone toward achieving net zero emissions.
According to the report, the production of scalable zero-emission fuels (SZEF) currently planned could end up covering less than half of the fuel required to meet the 2030 target.
Meanwhile, the current order book for SZEF-capable vessels would only deliver around 25% of the needed SZEF demand by the same year. Additionally, funding for clean fuels has slowed, with increased investment in fossil-fuel-powered vessels, further delaying the transition.
Dr. Domagoi Baresic, research fellow at the UCL Energy Institute and lead author of the report, highlighted the importance of swift action. “The speed at which the shipping industry adopts hydrogen-derived fuels will shape the success and cost of this transition for decades to come,” he said. “Extensive adoption of such fuels by 2030 remains within reach but will require significant and immediate action by policymakers, fuel suppliers, and the shipping industry over the next 12 months.”
Of the 35 key actions needed to deliver the 2030 breakthrough, only eight are considered ‘on track,’ while 13 are ‘off track’—a sharp increase from eight in last year’s report. The remaining 14 actions are only ‘partially on track.’ Despite these setbacks, the report stresses that the 2030 goal remains achievable if immediate and decisive action is taken.
Jesse Fahnestock, director of Decarbonisation at the Global Maritime Forum, underscored the urgency of the situation. “There is no time to waste, and we must see a big shift in momentum over the next 12 months to bring our 2030 targets within reach,” he said. “This report must act as a serious wake-up call to the industry to accelerate the transformation we need to see in the sector.”
The report concludes that the window of opportunity to make substantial progress is still open, though only slightly. Meeting the 2030 target is essential for the sector to contribute meaningfully to the global effort to limit climate change, but it will require substantial changes across policy, finance, and industry over the coming year. Without such efforts, the shipping industry risks facing a longer, more expensive, and less impactful transition.
